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    « False teachings of the muslim terrorist
    Money cannot intoxicate but greed can
    - Dr. Peter Achutha, 18 July 2009
    Malaysian property prices and the property market »

    Malaysian population growth and Malaysian property prices

    In my last article on Malaysian population growth and Malaysian property prices I had mentioned how population growth would affect property prices. In this article I have tried to understand Malaysian population growth. Unfortunately, due to a slip, I had lost most of my previous files and data and hence I have redone some of the research. Looking back I have interpreted the data differently with some very interesting results and conclusions.  



    Data Sourced from several websites

    I have sourced the data from the following websites:-

    1. tradingeconomics.com on malaysian indicators
    2. tradingeconomics.com on malaysian population
    3. unicef.org on malaysian statistics
    4. malaysiaeconomy.net on malaysian population
    5. indexmundi.com


    Chart of Malaysian population growth from 1960 to 2020


    population1960to2020800 malaysian population growth and malaysian property prices
    population1960to2020800 malaysian population growth and malaysian property prices
    population1960to2020800 malaysian population growth and malaysian property prices
    population1960to2020800 malaysian population growth and malaysian property prices

    What the chart above shows is that there was a change in population growth around the 1980’s. The population growth may have been accelerated by government policies.  



    Points to consider regarding Malaysian population growth

    A. Our population hit 27.76 million in 2009 and 28.5 million in 2011. The chart shows 31 to 33 million by 2010. The difference in the figures could be accounted for several reasons.

    1. Many Malaysians have gone overseas to work. The census work did not take into account the total numbers of people working overseas. According to the New Straits Times 1 Nov 2011, there are 1,000,000 Malaysians working overseas. Possibly this 1,000,000 is not included in the census.
    2. Many Malaysians have been migrating to greener pastures and this trend is not included in the census. Until we have data on the number of Malaysians migrating every year I will not be able to project an accurate population growth figures.

    B. I would consider projecting population growth figures that a realistic to +/- 10% pretty good feat since I do not have all the factors that affect population growth.

    C. Different population groups have different growth rates. Currently I am using data that lumps differing socio-economic factors together

    D. The more educated the population is the slower the population growth will be.

    E. Changes in cost of living and standard of living can have major impact on population growth rates. Would property prices in turn affect the population growth rate?   Now let us look at how this is reflected in long term predictions.



    Chart projecting Malaysia population growth from 1960 to 2100


    population19602100800 malaysian population growth and malaysian property prices
    population19602100800 malaysian population growth and malaysian property prices
    population19602100800 malaysian population growth and malaysian property prices
    population19602100800 malaysian population growth and malaysian property prices

    Please do refer back to these sites for more details and explanations.



    Quirks in the data

    This time around while examining the Malaysian population growth historical trends I noticed some quirks in the data. I do suspect that due to government policies of the 1970’s to 1980’s there is a slight change in the Malaysian population growth trends. Please do note that I have been looking at ‘bumps’ and ‘quirks’ in the data and from there tried to extrapolate the population growth figures. Please no note that these ‘quirks’ in the data may be just plain accidental, or temporary short term trends.    

    As you can observe form the chart above our population is predicted to be 120 million, if not 160 million by 2060. Do note all the curves here are generated by extrapolating from a few points of historical data. I did not look at birth and death rates and number of children per family.

    What is very interesting from all the investigating I have been carrying out is that I found out that the Malaysian population is slightly skewed. There are, very roughly, about 1% more males then females!  



    Malaysian property prices

    Investments and speculation on property sector looks very bright for the short term. Malaysia property prices will keep climbing over the next 10 to 20 years. There is no doubt about it. The way the Malaysian population is growing Malaysian property prices will climb a lot more. Malaysian property prices have been climbing at 8% per anum, when averaged out. If you would like to estimate your property price please use my egg inflation calculator. Just key in the year you bought the property, the price and the inflation rate of 8% and you will know the current or future price of the property.    



    Malaysian historical rate of births and deaths per 1000 population


    birthsdeaths800 malaysian population growth and malaysian property prices
    birthsdeaths800 malaysian population growth and malaysian property prices
    birthsdeaths800 malaysian population growth and malaysian property prices
    birthsdeaths800 malaysian population growth and malaysian property prices

    The net increase or decrease in population is given by the equation

    Net change in population per thousand = [ -0.3195*Year + 658.87 ]

    Hence the population in 2009 is 27,760,000 then the population in 2010 would be

    27,760,000 + Net change in population per thousand for a population of 27,760,000

    27,760,000 +[ (-0.3195*2010 + 658.87)*27760000/1000] = 27,760,000 + 462,898 = 28,222,898 in 2010.  

    And here are some shocking projections of Malaysian population growth figures.  



    Malaysian population projections based on the net rate of population growth


    populationshock800 malaysian population growth and malaysian property prices
    populationshock800 malaysian population growth and malaysian property prices
    populationshock800 malaysian population growth and malaysian property prices
    populationshock800 malaysian population growth and malaysian property prices

    It is shocking, isn’t it? If our birth rates keep falling we will have an ageing population by 2060. The number of children per family has been dropping from about 6 in 1960 to about 2.6 currently. Our Malaysian population will reach about 45 million by 2060 and then reduce due to the increasing number of deaths from the aging population.  



    What does this mean to Malaysia property prices and property investments?

    1. Invest in the undertaking business, come 2060. Invest in funeral parlours and funeral homes.
    2. Get out of any REIT or property investment schemes, fund, and property related shares before the year 2060.

      Do remember that one day we all have to go but we cannot take the money with us.

    - Dr. Peter Achutha, 13 Feb 2012


     


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